U.S. Consumer Sentiment Bodes Well For Holiday Sales

NRF Projects Rise of 3.7 Percent over 2014; All Eyes on Black Friday

According to a recent NPD Group survey of 3,600 adults, U.S. shoppers are looking forward to the winter holidays this year. Eager to catch a break from “what’s going in the world” and wanting “to give to the less fortunate” are the main reasons given for the positive sentiments. Whatever’s behind their holiday outlook, 15 percent of those surveyed plan to spend more than last year and 16 percent plan to spend less (down from 20 percent in 2014). That’s the smallest gap between the two groups in the last three years. The glass looks half full as we head into the make-or-break season, and as a leader in retail real estate, we’re watching for the opening salvo – Black Friday – and what it might indicate for the final stretch of 2015.

Modest Rise in Holiday Sales Projected by Major Retail Trend Watchers

After a sluggish 2015, will retailers get a rush of spending in the year’s closing weeks? The National Retail Federation has projected an increase of 3.7 percent, totaling $630.7 billion in sales for November and December and slightly below last year’s 4 percent advance. Deloitte LLP is more optimistic, predicting an upward tick of “as much as” 4 percent. Alix Partners’ view is more sober at 2.8 to 3.4 percent. Whichever number eventually materializes, it seems that the retail trend toward bargain-hunting will continue, with buyers as the ultimate winners.

“Americans remain torn between their desire and their ability to spend. The fact remains that consumers still have the weight of the economy on their minds,” said NRF President Matthew Shay. Despite low energy prices and a strengthening job market, the economy is not in full recovery and not all boats have been lifted by the rising tide. Stagnant hourly wages at the lower end of the economic spectrum have restrained a substantial segment of consumers.

PwC describes today’s shoppers as divided into two groups: “survivalists” and “selectionists.” The border between the two is a household income of $50,000. Those below that mark will seek bargains this holiday season, planning to spend $631 less than last year. Those above, who are planning to boost seasonal spending by $1,331, will gravitate toward personal electronics and experiences (travel and entertainment). But, because of the power of the Internet, shoppers in both groups will be able to search for and find the best deals for almost everything on their wish lists, using dozens of websites with up-to-the-minute news on Black Friday specials.

Once a Retail Trend, Now a Retail Institution, Will Black Friday Bounce Back from 2014s Fall-off?

The winter holidays are a crucial season for many retailers, with the major chains dependent on November and December activity for as much as 30 percent of their annual sales. Black Friday, the unofficial opener to the season, holds special significance. A consistent winner for the past dozen years, Black Friday’s sales fell off 11 percent in 2014, with four-day total sales of $50.9 billion, down from $57.4 billion in 2013. This includes both in-store and online.

Amazon Will Open the Season on November 1, But Wal-Mart Will Finish on Top

No retailers are waiting for the day after Thanksgiving to launch holiday promotions. First out of the gate on November 1 will be Amazon with its “Countdown to Black Friday” promotion. From there, the frenzy will continue, peaking on Black Friday but continuing through the holiday weekend before slipping into online’s own Cyber Monday.

If Black Friday itself turns in a disappointing performance, trend watchers say, it will likely be the result of a time frame that has stretched from one day to two to now a full month. BestBlackFriday.com, a website that tracks seasonal retail activity, predicts that Friday sales will slip 3.3 percent to $8 billion. Thanksgiving Day will get a bump of 18.8 percent. Together, the two days will see online sales up 33.3 percent from 2014.

As Black Friday 2015 becomes retail history, promotion will continue to surge from Cyber Monday to Green Monday (the second Monday in December), all the way to the final holiday shopping week, when in-store sales are expected to spike. At the season’s end, retail watchers predict, Wal-Mart will emerge the big winner. Its multi-channel strategy includes their one-hour in-stock guarantee policy, online exclusives on a powerful website, and irresistible in-store pricing on the hottest holiday items.

Interested in more trends and predictions for Black Friday, visit: http://www.twice.com/news/statistics/top-10-black-friday-2015-predictions/58759.